MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. EDT on Saturday, August 17, 2019, that predicts a low (20%) chance of an area of disturbed weather becoming a tropical cyclone off the coast of Florida during the next five days.
A weak surface trough is producing organized cloudiness and showers over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and northeastern Florida.
NHC forecasters say any tropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days as it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and a threat of flash flooding along the U.S. Southeast coast.
The system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 20% chance within the next 5 days.
If the surface trough becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Chantal.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.