NOAA: Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, August 26, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Dorian over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Dorian (formerly Tropical Depression 5 and Invest 99L) is located 270 miles east-southeast of Barbados and is moving to the west at 14 mph (22km/h).

Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that Dorian will make a turn toward the west-northwest later today, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the Windward Islands later today or tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Storm Dorian will continue on a northwesterly track towards the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and The Bahamas.

The ECMWF and GFS computer models keep Dorian weaker and farther south to the left side of the guidance envelope.

The HWRF and UKMET models have more northerly tracks near Puerto Rico and then near or north of Hispaniola.

The official NHC forecast track and various consensus models are between these extremes.

Tropical Storm Dorian is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane on Tuesday.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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