NOAA: Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, August 24, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Dorian over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Dorian (formerly Tropical Depression 5 and Invest 99L) is located 635 miles east-southeast of Barbados and is moving to the west at 14 mph (22 km/h).

Tropical Storm Dorian Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that Dorian will make a turn toward the west-northwest on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Dorian Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in good agreement that Tropical Storm Dorian will strengthen into Hurricane Dorian and continue on a west-northwesterly track towards the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Haiti.

The official NHC forecast track was shifted slightly north of the previous advisory track, and is close to the consensus model TVCN, which remains north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model.

Tropical Storm Dorian Strength

Tropical Storm Dorian is a tropical depression on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is forecast to become a Category 1 Hurricane on Monday.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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