NHC: Tropical Depression Ten Computer Models, Path

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 17, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Ten (formerly Invest 97L) that will strengthen into Tropical Storm Jerry later tonight.

Tropical Depression 10 Projected Path

Tropical Depression Ten is located 1030 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph (17 km/h).

A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Tropical Depression 10 will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical Depression Ten Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in relatively good agreement through 72 hours that the tropical cyclone will near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days.

From Days 2 to 4, the GFS model (purple square), UK model (blue square), and European model (orange triangle) forecast that T.D. 10 will continue to the northwest and track just east of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas.

On Day 5, the European, UK, and GFS models forecast a turn to the north toward the open Atlantic.

The HRWF model (pink circle) is the outlier which predicts a more west-northwesterly track closer toward the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic during Days 2 to 5.

The official NHC forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

Tropical Depression 10 Strength

Tropical Depression 10 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

T.D. 10 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Jerry by Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast become a Category 1 Hurricane Jerry by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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