MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 20, 2019, due to the presence of three systems that may become tropical cyclones in addition to Hurricane Jerry.
The first system is a tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands that is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers (marked with right yellow “X”).
The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days
According to the National Hurricane Center, some development of this system is possible over the weekend while the system approaches the Windward Islands.
Upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the tropical wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
The second system is a broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea that is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly to the east and northeast of its center of circulation (marked with the left yellow “X”).
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the weekend.
NHC forecasters say that although upper-level winds are conducive for significant development, some slight development is possible during the next day or two as long as the system remains over water.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days.
This second system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
The third system is a tropical wave forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend (marked with the red “X”).
According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development thereafter while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
A tropical depression could form by early next week.
This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.
If any of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Karen.
Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, the weeks before and after peak hurricane season can be very active according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.