NOAA: Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 1, 2019, due to the presence of Hurricane Dorian that is a Category 5 hurricane with 185 MPH winds approaching Florida.

The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the Sunshine State at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Update

Hurricane Dorian is located 280 miles east of  West Palm Beach, Florida and is moving to the west at 5 mph (7 km/h).

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, a slower westward to west-northwestward motions should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest.

On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday.

The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Hurricane Dorian Computer Models

The official NHC track forecast is very close to the European hurricane model (ECMWF) and multi-model consensus TVCA.

Hurricane Dorian Category Strength

Dorian is currently a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.


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