NOAA: Hurricane Dorian Track Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 4, 2019, due to the presence of Hurricane Dorian off the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Dorian Projected Path Update

Hurricane Dorian is located 90 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida and is moving north-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h).

This north-northwest motion is expected to continue through today.

A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight.

The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Hurricane Dorian Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in close agreement for the next 48 hours that Hurricane Dorian will track parallel to the Florida, Georgia, and South Caroline coasts before tracking over the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks.

The official NHC track is in close agreement with the GFS, European hurricane model (ECMWF), and consensus computer models for the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Dorian Category Strength

Dorian is currently a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

Hurricane Dorian Watches and Warning

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from north of Port Canaveral, Florida to the North Carolina/Virginia border, Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of the Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border,  Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to the Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

Share
Copyright 2011-2019 BrevardTimes.com Privacy Policy Contact Us