MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 11, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 95L that may become a tropical cyclone near South Florida as early as Friday.
Invest 95L is a large area of showers and thunderstorms located along a sharp surface trough located over the southeastern Bahamas (marked with a red “X”).
NHC forecasters say that conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development and a tropical depression could form the Florida Straights or South Florida as early as Friday.
Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend.
Invest 95L will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.
Invest 95L has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 50% chance within the next 48 hours.
Spaghetti models are in agreement that Invest 95L will track northwest across the Bahamas and South Florida.
The often accurate GFS hurricane ensemble models forecast that Invest 95L will track to the northwest somewhere between Central Florida and South Florida on Friday.
If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Humberto.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.