MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, September 16, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 97L that will likely become a tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Ocean.
If Invest 97L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Imelda.
Invest 97L is a well-defined small low pressure system located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with a red “X”).
Environmental conditions will become more conducive for the gradual development of Invest 97L.
According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression could form in the next day or so while this system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.
Invest 97L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.
Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Invest 97L will track north-northwest over the tropical Atlantic over the next 24 hours.
From Days 2 to 5, the GFS model (purple square) and European model (orange triangle) forecast that Invest 97L will turn to the northwest and track well east of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.
The UK model (blue square) is the outlier which predicts a more west-northwesterly track closer to Antigua and Puerto Rico during Days 2 to 5.
NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.