NOAA: Tropical Storm Humberto Projected Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 15, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Humberto (formerly Tropical Depression 9 and Invest 95L) that is tracking off the east coast of Florida.

Tropical Storm Humberto Projected Path

Tropical Storm Humberto is located 165 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida and is moving north at 7 mph (11 km/h).

A slow northward motion is expected through tonight.

A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so and then move away from the U.S. towards Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Humberto Computer Models

The overall track forecast spread between the reliable computer models has tightened considerably.

But spaghetti models differ in the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.

The  GFS, UKMET and European (ECMWF) models all show a stronger cyclone farther offshore of Florida.

The new official NHC forecast track similar to, but a little slower than, the previous advisory.

The new NHC track forecast is closest to the multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences among the guidance.

Tropical Storm Humberto Category Strength

Tropical Storm Humberto has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), with higher gusts.

Humberto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

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