NOAA: Tropical Storm Jerry Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Jerry, Hurricane Jerry Projected Path

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 19, 2019, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Jerry (formerly Tropical Depression 10 and Invest 97L) over the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Jerry Projected Path

Tropical Storm Jerry is located 575 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h).

A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Jerry Computer Models

Tropical Storm Jerry, Hurricane Jerry, Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in relatively good agreement through 48 hours that the tropical cyclone will near the northern Leeward Islands on Friday.

From Days 1 to 2, the GFS model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and UK model (blue square) forecast that Tropical Storm Jerry will continue to the northwest and track just east of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas.

On Day 3, the European, UK and GFS models forecast a turn to the north-northwest toward the open Atlantic.

The official NHC forecast track is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Tropical Storm Jerry Category Strength

Tropical Storm Jerry, Hurricane Jerry Winds

Tropical Storm Jerry has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Jerry is forecast become a Category 1 Hurricane Jerry later today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and Saturday.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

Tropical Storm Jerry Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry.