NOAA: Tropical Storm Karen Path Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Projected Path

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, September 23, 2019, due to Tropical Storm Karen approaching the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Karen is located 155 miles south of St. Croix and is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).

The tropical cyclone is forecast to turn to the north by Tuesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight.

On Tuesday morning, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Karen will then move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Computer Models

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Karen will track north-northwesterly tonight followed by a curve to the north towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.

The European (orange triangle) and GFS (purple square) models are in general agreement that Karen will stall by Friday and then make a sharp westerly turn towards the northern Bahamas and Florida’s east coast.

The official NHC track forecast (red circle) is south of the consensus models in deference to the European model.

The confidence in the NHC track forecast at days 4 and 5 is quite low.

Tropical Storm Karen Category Strength

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Winds

Tropical Storm Karen has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Karen is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Karen Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Karen.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.