NOAA: Tropical Storm Karen Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 22, 2019, due to the formation of Tropical Storm Karen (formerly Invest 99L) near the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Karen is located 350 miles south-southeast of St. Croix and is moving to the west-northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

The tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northwest later tonight or on Monday followed by a turn to the north on Tuesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday.

On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Karen will track northwesterly over the eastern Caribbean tonight.

Computer models forecast a north-northwesterly turn on Monday followed by a curve to the north towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Tuesday.

The European and GFS models are in general agreement that Karen will stall on Friday and then make a sharp westerly turn towards the northern Bahamas and Florida’s east coast.

The official NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly-packed consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Tropical Storm Karen Category Strength

Tropical Storm Karen has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Karen is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Karen Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Grenada and its dependencies, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Karen.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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