NOAA: Two More Tropical Cyclones May Form After Jerry

National Hurricane Center 5-Day Tropical Outlook September 19, 2019

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 19, 2019, due to the presence of two systems that may become tropical cyclones in addition to Tropical Storm Jerry.

The first system is a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands that is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers (marked with a yellow “1”).

According to the National Hurricane Center, some development of this system is possible over the weekend while the system approaches the Windward Islands or across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic that is associated with a tropical wave (marked with a yellow “2”).

The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the weekend.

NHC forecasters say that upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for significant development.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next couple of days.

This second system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

If either of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Karen.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, the weeks before and after peak hurricane season can be very active according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.