NOAA: Tropical Storm Karen Track, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Track

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 25, 2019, due to Tropical Storm Karen off the coast of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Track

Tropical Storm Karen is located 155 miles north-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and is moving to the north at 14 mph (22 km/h).

The tropical cyclone is forecast to move toward the north this morning followed by a motion toward the north-northeast this afternoon through Thursday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today.

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Computer Models

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models and the NHC track should become in better agreement later today once Karen moves farther away from Puerto Rico.

Presently, computer models are in strong agreement that Karen will track to the north-northeast then stall by Friday.

The European (orange triangle) model and GFS model (purple square) forecast that Karen will make a sharp westerly turn towards the northern Bahamas and Florida’s east coast.

The UK model (blue square) forecasts that the westerly turn will occur further north and miss the Bahamas.

The official NHC track forecast (red circle) is in closer agreement with the European model and the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south.

Tropical Storm Karen Category Strength

Tropical Storm Karen 2019 Winds

Tropical Storm Karen has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Karen is a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Karen is forecast to strengthen during the next 48 hours.