MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, October 16, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 96L that may become a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 96L is a broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in the Bay of Campeche that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with an orange “X”).
NHC forecasters say that gradual development of Invest 96L is possible and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 96L will track northeasterly across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere between Lousiana and Florida.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
Invest 96L has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.
If Invest 96L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Nestor.
Hurricanes that make U.S. landfall in October historically originate from the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, a smaller secondary peak occurs during the second week of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.