MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 17, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 96L that may become Tropical Storm Nestor later today.
Invest 96L is a broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in the Bay of Campeche that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with an orange “X”).
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 96L has increased during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force.
NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight.
Regardless of development, Invest 96L could produce gusty winds and rough surf when it nears the northern or northeastern U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday.
Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend.
Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 96L will track northeasterly across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere from Lousiana to Florida.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
Invest 96L has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.
If Invest 96L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Nestor.
Hurricanes that make U.S. landfall in October historically originate from the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, a smaller secondary peak occurs during the second week of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.