NOAA: Invest 97L Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, October 25, 2019, due to the presence of Invest 97L that may become Tropical Depression 17 later today.

Invest 97L is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located over the western Gulf of Mexico that continues to show signs of circulation (marked with a red “X”).

NHC forecasters say that it is likely a short-lived tropical depression will form later today.

However, the system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.

Invest 97L 2019 Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 97L will track north-northeasterly across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on Lousiana.

Invest 97L has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.

If Invest 97L becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Olga.

Hurricanes that make U.S. landfall in October historically originate from the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Although peak hurricane season was on September 10, a smaller secondary peak occurs during the second week of October according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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