NOAA: Two More Tropical Cyclones May Form After Lorenzo

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook October 1, 2019

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, October 1, 2019, due to the presence of two systems that may become tropical cyclones in addition to Hurricane Lorenzo.

The first system is a broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica (marked with the left yellow “X”).

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook October 1, 2019

This system is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.

Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

According to the National Hurricane Center, this system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is an area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with a weak surface trough that is  located near and east of the southeastern Bahamas (marked with the right yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and east of Bermuda.

This second system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

If either of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Melissa.

October hurricanes

Historically, hurricanes originate more often from the Caribbean Sea in October.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.