Tropical Depression 15, Invest 95L Projected Paths, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Depression Fifteen over the eastern Atlantic, Invest 95L over the central Atlantic, and another system over the Gulf of Mexico that may also form into tropical cyclones.

Tropical Depression 15 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

At 5 p.m. EDT on October 14, 2019, Tropical Depression Fifteen is located 320 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h).

This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Invest 95L Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

Invest 95L is a tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic that is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.

Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since yesterday, NHC forecasters say that upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of Invest 95L.

As Invest 95L approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development.

Invest 95L has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

Gulf of Mexico System

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America that are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras.

NHC forecasters say that this system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days which will prevent tropical cyclone formation during that time.

By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some further organization to occur.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If any of these systems becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Nestor.

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