NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory on Friday, October 18, 2019, due to Tropical Storm Nestor that is forecast to hit Florida.
On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Tropical Storm Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and then hit Florida around 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday.
However, tropical-storm-force winds will begin to impact Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi by Friday afternoon.
Tropical Storm Nestor is located 195 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving to the northeast at 22 mph (35 km/h).
This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm Nestor has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the southwest of the center.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today before hitting Florida.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
The GFS model (purple square), European model (orange triangle), and official NHC track forecast (red circle) are in strong agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall near or between Pensacola, Panama City Beach, or Mexico Beach.
The notable outlier is the UK model (blue square) which forecasts a landfall further south near Florida’s Big Bend.