NOAA: 60% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

NOAA National Hurricane Center Invest 90L 2019 Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 p.m. EST on Monday, November 18, 2019, that predicts a 60% chance of an area of disturbed weather becoming a tropical cyclone far off the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours.

If the system becomes a tropical storm, the next name on the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane names list is Tropical Storm Sebastien.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although hurricane season ends on November 30, hurricanes can continue to form through late December according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Invest 90L Spaghetti Models

Invest 90L 2019 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Invest 90L is a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands that has become better defined during the past several hours.

The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show signs of organization.

NHC forecasters say that additional development is possible and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next day or two while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic.

The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is unlikely after that time.

Invest 90L has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a 60% chance within the next 5 days.