NHC NOAA: Tropical Storm Arthur Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA GOES satellite image Tropical Storm Arthur 2020

CAPE HATTERAS, North Carolina – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, May 17, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Arthur (formerly Invest 90L and Tropical Depression One) that is tracking towards the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Arthur Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Arthur 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Arthur 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Arthur is located 380 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is moving to the north-northeast at 9 mph (15 km/h).

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Tropical Storm Arthur Computer Models

Tropical Storm Arthur Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall on, or pass just east of, the Outerbanks of North Carolina.

The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show an offshore track.

The NHC track forecast splits the difference between these computer models and lies close to the various consensus models, which usually perform best.

There has been a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the official forecast track.

Tropical Storm Arthur Strength

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h), with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Arthur Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Arthur are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.