NOAA: 20% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

NOAA GOES satellite image

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 5:20 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, May 25, 2020, due to the presence of a system that has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone off the east coast of Florida within the next five days.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance.

NOAA National Hurricane Center Special Tropical Weather Outlook May 2020

NHC forecasters say that although a weak surface low could form along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due to strong upper-level winds.

This system has a 20% chance of subtropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although hurricane season does not start until June 1st, tropical storms and hurricanes do frequently occur during the of May, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.