NOAA: 50% Chance Subtropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

NOAA National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast May 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 10:05 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, May 12, 2020, due to the presence of a system that may become subtropical cyclone off the east coast of Florida within the next five days.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas (marked with an orange “1”).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through  Sunday.

This system has a 50% chance of subtropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although hurricane season does not start until June 1st, a small peak of activity often occurs during the second week of May, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.