NOAA: 70% Chance Subtropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

NOAA National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast May 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:45 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, May 13, 2020, due to the presence of a system that will likely become a subtropical cyclone off the east coast of Florida within the next five days.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this week or early this weekend near or within a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas (marked with a red “1”).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for the gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or subtropical storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic.

This system has a 70% chance of subtropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although hurricane season does not start until June 1st, a small peak of activity often occurs during the second week of May, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.