NOAA: 80% Chance Invest 90L Forms Into A Tropical Cyclone Off Florida

NOAA National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast May 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 2:40 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, May 14, 2020, due to the presence of a system named Invest 90L that will likely become a tropical or subtropical cyclone off the east coast of Florida within the next 48 hours.

A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a  large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms (marked with a red “X”).

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of Invest 90L and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas.

Invest 90L is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week.

Regardless of development, this disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two.

Hazardous marine conditions are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary.

Invest 90L has an 80% chance of subtropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.

If Invest 90L forms into a tropical storm or hurricane, the first name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Arthur.

Although hurricane season does not start until June 1st, a small peak of activity often occurs during the second week of May, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.