NOAA: Tropical Storm Bertha Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

CHARLESTON, South Carolina – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, May 27, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Bertha that is tracking towards South Carolina.

Tropical Storm Bertha Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Bertha 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Bertha is located 30 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and is moving to the northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h).

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of Bertha will move onshore in the warning area in the next few hours and the move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina later today and into west-central North Carolina by tonight.

Tropical Storm Bertha Computer Models

Tropical Storm Bertha 2020 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that the tropical cyclone will make landfall on South Carolina and continue northward into western North Carolina.

The system should continue to move generally northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Tropical Storm Bertha Strength

Tropical Storm Bertha’s maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression after moving  inland and become a remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Bertha Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, in this case in the next few hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area in the next couple of hours.

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