National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression Three Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, June 2, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Three (formerly Invest 93L) that is forecast to become Tropical Storm Cristobal over the Gulf of Mexico later today.

If Tropical Storm Cristobal forms before June 4th, it will be a record-breaking earliest third-named tropical storm in the history of the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Tropical Depression 3 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Depression Three is located 140 miles west of Campeche, Mexico, and is moving to the west at 3 mph (6 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that the tropical cyclone is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical depression is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Tropical Depression 3 Computer Models
Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models
Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in good agreement that the tropical cyclone will meander near the Bay of Campeche through Thursday before heading northward towards Texas and Louisiana.

The global and regional computer models remain in overall in good agreement that the cyclone will remain trapped in a  break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the depression.

By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to drop southward out of the southern plains and into the ridge weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly northward on Friday and Saturday.

Until that time, the cyclone is expected to meander over the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3 days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan.

The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropical Depression 3 Category Strength

Tropical Depression 3 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The minimum central pressure reported by a U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).