National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Cristobal Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA GOES satellite image Tropical Storm Cristobal

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, June 7, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Cristobal (formerly Tropical Depression Cristobal, Tropical Depression 3, and Invest 93L) which broke the record for the earliest third-named tropical storm in the history of the Atlantic Hurricane Basin.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Cristobal is located 75 miles south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and is moving to the north at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models
Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Spaghetti Models, Computer Models

Spaghetti models are in tight agreement that the tropical cyclone will head northward towards Louisiana.

The NHC track lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and similar to the European model (ECMWF).

Tropical Storm Cristobal Category Strength
Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Cristobal 2020 Projected Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds are 50 mph (85 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

According to the National Hurricane Center, little change in strength is forecast before landfall and weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Watches And Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi; and Lake Borgne.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County, Florida line; Lake Pontchartrain; and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.