National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Fay Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

CAPE MAY, New Jersey – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, June 10, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Fay (formerly Invest 98L) which is forecast to make landfall on the New Jersey coast and Long Island, New York.

Tropical Storm Fay Projected Path
National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Fay 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Fay is located 25 miles east-southeast of Cape May, New Jersey, and is moving to the north at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

On the National Hurricane Center forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone is forecast to move near the New Jersey coast this afternoon and move inland over the mid-Atlantic and the northeast United States tonight and Saturday.

Tropical Storm Fay 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in tight agreement that the tropical cyclone will head northward along the eastern coast of New Jersey towards New York City.

The official NHC track lies in the middle of the consensus models.

Tropical Storm Fay Category Strength
Tropical Storm Fay 2020 Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Fay’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

According to the National Hurricane Center, little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland.

Tropical Storm Fay Watches And Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Watch Hill, Rhode Island including Long Island, Long Island Sound, and southern Delaware Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England.

These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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