NOAA: 40% Chance New Tropical Cyclone Forms In Next 5 Days

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook August 29, 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, August 29, 2020, due to the presence of two systems that may form into tropical cyclones after Hurricane Laura within the next 5 days.

The first system is a westward-moving tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce disorganized shower activity (marked with an orange “X”).

NHC forecasters say that the northern part of this wave, which is expected to move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is forecast to remain too far to the north and in an unfavorable environment for development to occur.

However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is a tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Nana and Omar.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t occur until September 10, tropical cyclone activity significantly increases during the last week of August, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.