NOAA: 50% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook August 30, 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, August 30, 2020, due to the presence of three systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 5 days.

The first system is a westward-moving tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce limited shower activity (marked with an orange “X” on right).

NHC forecasters say that this system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave that is affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that although the disturbance is not well organized at this time, some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Lesser Antilles and across the Caribbean Sea.

This system has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today.

The third system is an area of low pressure over Florida that is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two (marked with an orange “X” on left).

NHC forecasters say that subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land.

This system has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 40% chance within the next 48 hours.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Nana, Omar, and Paulette.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t occur until September 10, tropical cyclone activity significantly increases during the first week of September, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.