NOAA: Hurricane Isaias Track To South Carolina, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, August 3, 2020, due to the presence of Hurricane Isaias that is forecast to track near or over the South Carolina / North Carolina border.

Hurricane Isaias Projected Path

Isaias is located about 60 miles south of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving to the north-northeast at 16 mph (26 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday.

On the NHC forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the next few hours.

The center will then move inland across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern United States Tuesday night.

Hurricane Isaias Computer Models

Hurricane Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The GFS (purple square), UK model (blue square), European (orange triangle and square), HRWF (pink circle), and NHC (red circle) models are in tight agreement that Isaias will track north-northeastward well offshore and parallel to the Georgia coast before making landfall near the South Carolina / North Carolina border.

The new NHC track forecast is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track and lies very close to a blend of the tightly packed multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Hurricane Isaias Strength

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Isaias is a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall.

After landfall, only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane Isaias Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Folly Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers; and from Oregon Inlet, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina; North of Surf City, North Carolina to Stonington, Maine; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; Chesapeake Bay; Tidal Potomac River; Delaware Bay; Long Island and Long Island Sound; Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Stonington to Eastport, Maine.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above-normal’ 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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