NOAA: Tropical Depression 11 Track, Spaghetti Models

Tropical Depression 11 2020 NOAA GOES Satellite Image

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, August 13, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Eleven (formerly Invest 95L) that is tracking near the Caribbean.

If T.D. 11 strengthens into a tropical storm, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names list is Josephine.

Tropical Depression 11 Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 11 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 11 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 11 is located about 1075 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph (24 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

Tropical Depression 11 Computer Models

Tropical Depression Eleven 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Eleven 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Tropical Depression 11 will move west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic then curve northwestward into the open Atlantic before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles.

The CMC computer model (yellow triangle) is the western outlier with a later curve towards Bermuda.

The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts a turn to the north towards Bermuda.

The official NHC forecast (red circle) is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus or HCCA.

Tropical Depression 11 Category Strength

Tropical Depression 11 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 11 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 11 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

T.D. 11 is forecast to slowly strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine later today.