National Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression 13 Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 21, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Thirteen (formerly Invest 98L) that is forecast to become a hurricane tracking toward the Florida Keys.

If Tropical Depression 13, Tropical Depression 14, or a third system become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Laura, Marco, and Nana.

Tropical Depression 13 Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 13 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 13 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 13 is located about 255 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 21 mph (33 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

On the NHC forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night.

Tropical Depression 13 Computer Models

Tropical Depression Thirteen 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Thirteen 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The track guidance has shifted southward since the last NHC advisory.

The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts that the system will track north of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, then curve northwestward towards Key West, Florida.

The CMC Canadian model (yellow square) is the northern outlier which forecasts that Tropical Depression 13 will make landfall around Miami, Florida.

The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a bit southward from the previous track. However, it lies to the north of the GFS, the UKMET, and the various consensus models. It also lies north of the ECMWF European model from 24-72 hours.

Tropical Depression 13 Category Strength

Tropical Depression 13 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 13 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 13 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

T.D. 13 is forecast to gradually strengthen into a tropical storm by the weekend.

Tropical Depression 13 Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today.

Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should also monitor the progress of this system.