NOAA: Tropical Depression 14 Track, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 14 Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, August 21, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Fourteen (formerly Invest 97L) that is forecast to become a hurricane tracking toward Texas or Louisiana.

If Tropical Depression 14 or a third system become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Marco and Nana.

Tropical Depression 14 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 14 is located about 210 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and is moving to the northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday.

On the NHC forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.

The center of the tropical cyclone will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Depression 14 Computer Models

Tropical Depression Fourteen 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Fourteen 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The official NHC track forecast has been shifted westward from the previous prediction on days 4 and 5 toward the GFS American model and ECMWF European model.

The NHC track forecast is still of rather low confidence, with the spread among the model guidance being larger than normal at every forecast time period.

Tropical Depression 14 Category Strength

Tropical Depression 14 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 14 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 14 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight.

The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression 14 Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Punta Herrero to Cancun, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Punta Herrero to Dzilam, Mexico.