NOAA: Tropical Storm Josephine Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, August 15, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Josephine (formerly Invest 95L and Tropical Depression 11) that is tracking near the Caribbean.

Josephine is the earliest “J” storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Storm Josephine Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Josephine is located about 200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week.

On the NHC forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight.

Tropical Storm Josephine Computer Models

Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in tight agreement that Tropical Storm Josephine will move west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic then curve northeastward towards Bermuda.

The CMC computer model (yellow triangle) is the western outlier.

The GFS American model (purple square) forecasts a curve towards Bermuda.

The NHC forecast (red circle) remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction.

Tropical Storm Josephine Category Strength

Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Josephine 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Josephine has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is expected through today.

After that time, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the tropical cyclone’s center.

Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.