NOAA: Tropical Storm Laura Path Update, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 25, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Storm Laura (formerly Invest 98L and Tropical Storm 13) that is forecast to become a major hurricane tracking toward Louisiana and Texas.

Tropical Storm Laura Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Laura 2020 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Laura 2020 Projected Path

Tropical Storm Laura is located about 625 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana, and is moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph (28 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion should continue today.

A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night.

On the NHC forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Laura Computer Models

Tropical Storm Laura 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Laura 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The majority of the computer models have shifted to the west and are in strong agreement that Laura will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border.

The new NHC track forecast is at the eastern edge of the guidance envelope

Tropical Storm Laura Category Strength

Tropical Storm Laura 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Laura 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Laura has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and  Laura is now expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Tropical Storm Laura Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to Ocean Springs, Mississippi; Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to west of Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth; and Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass to Freeport, Texas; and Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.