National Hurricane Center: 10% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook September 22, 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, due to the presence of another system that may form into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days in addition to Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Paulette, and Tropical Storm Beta.

The system is an area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico that are associated with a cold front (marked with a yellow “X”).

This disturbance is forecast to move slowly southward during the next couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through Saturday.

NHC forecasters say that development, if any, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is expected to be slow to occur.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday and over the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.

This system has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Gamma.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.