National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Formation Off Florida Unlikely

Forida east coast NOAA GOES Satellite Image

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 20, 2020, due to the presence of two other systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 5 days in addition to Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Depression Wilfred (formerly Invest 98L), and Tropical Storm Beta (formerly Invest 90L and Tropical Depression 22).

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook September 20, 2020
National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook September 20, 2020

The first system is a weak area of low pressure located inland over southwestern Florida that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Florida peninsula (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that the low is forecast to move west-southwestward at about 10 mph over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Monday.

Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive, and significant development of this system is not anticipated.

This system has a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a near 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is post-tropical cyclone Paulette that is located a few hundred miles south of the Azores (marked with an orange “X”).

This system continues to produce disorganized shower activity.

The post-tropical cyclone is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward on Monday.

NHC forecasters say that the system could develop tropical characteristics during the next day or two.

This system has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 60% chance within the next 48 hours.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Gamma.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.