NOAA: 5 Tropical Cyclones May Form, No Immediate Threat To Florida

National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook September 3, 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, September 3, 2020, due to the presence of three other systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 5 days in addition to Tropical Storm Nana and Tropical Depression Omar.

The first system is a tropical wave located off the west coast of Africa that is merging with another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with a red “X”).

NHC forecasters say that the development of this system is likely to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

A tropical depression is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

The second system is a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that continues to produce a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms (marked with an orange “X”).

NHC forecasters say that gradual development is possible early next week as the larger tropical wave located off of the coast of Africa passes to the north of the system on Sunday.

This system has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

The third system is another tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa over the weekend (marked with a yellow shaded area).

NHC forecasters say that an area of low pressure is expected to form from the wave, and some development of this low will be possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next names on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List are Paulette and Rene.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t occur until September 10, tropical cyclone activity significantly increases during the first week of September, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.