NOAA: Invest 98L 99L Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 18, 2020, due to the presence of four other systems that may form into tropical cyclones within the next 5 days in addition to Hurricane Teddy and Tropical Depression 22 (formerly Invest 90L).

Invest 98L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The first system, named Invest 98L, is an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (marked with a red “X”).

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized.

Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the end of the week.

The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the weekend.

This system has a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 70% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 99L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The second system, named Invest 99L, is a small low pressure system embedded within a larger non-tropical low that is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the Azores (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that although showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller low are showing signs of organization, the system will soon move inland over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development is unlikely.

The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of western Portugal today and tonight.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.

The third system is post-tropical cyclone Paulette that is located several hundred miles north-northwest of the Azores (marked with a yellow “X” furthest to the north).

The cyclone is forecast to move quickly southward for the next several days and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest of the Azores by the end of the weekend.

NHC forecasters say that the cyclone could subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week while it moves little.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours.

The fourth system is another tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Saturday (marked with a yellow “X” over Africa).

NHC forecasters say that some gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.

This system has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 0% chance within the next 48 hours.

If these systems become tropical storms or hurricanes, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Wilfred.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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