NOAA: Invest 94L Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, September 9, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 94L that may become a tropical cyclone off the coast of North Carolina.

Invest 94L 2020 Projected Path

Invest 94L is an area of low pressure located about 300 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, that is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center of circulation  (marked with a yellow “X”).

NHC forecasters say that the low is forecast to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and some development is possible before it moves inland over eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon.

Interests along the coasts of North and South Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Invest 94L has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next five days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.

If this system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Sally.

Invest 94L 2020 Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Paulette 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Paulette 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 94L will track west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean towards the North Carolina side of the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.