NOAA: Tropical Depression 21 Track, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 21 Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, September 14, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty-One (formerly Invest 97L) over the Atlantic Ocean

If Tropical Depression 21 becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Names List is Vicky.

Tropical Depression 21 Projected Path

Tropical Depression 21 is located about 330 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the north at 6 mph (9 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 21 Computer Models

Tropical Depression Twenty-One Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Twenty-One Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that T.D. 21 will track west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next few days.

The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope and is similar to the consensus model TVCA.

Tropical Depression 21 Category Strength

Tropical Depression Twenty-One NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression Twenty-One NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression 21 has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that time.

Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 7 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.