NOAA: Tropical Depression 22 Track, Spaghetti Models

Tropical Depression 22 NOAA GOES Satellite Image

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Special Public Advisory at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 18, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Twenty-two (formerly Invest 90L) over the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 22 Projected Path
NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression 22 Projected Path

Tropical Depression Twenty-two is located about 255 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and is moving to the north-northeast at 7 mph (11 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected through early Saturday.

A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night that will likely continue into early next week.

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Computer Models

Tropical Depression 22 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression 22 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that T.D. 22 will slowly track north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days followed by a turn to the west.

The computer model and the track guidance spread are higher than usual which is why there is a large cone of uncertainty in the official NHC forecast.

Tropical Depression Twenty-two Category Strength

Tropical Depression 22 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Depression 22 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Depression Twenty-two has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.