NOAA: Hurricane Teddy Track Update, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 8 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, due to the presence of Hurricane Teddy that is tracking toward Nova Scotia.

Teddy the earliest 19th named storm of any Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Teddy Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Teddy 2020 Projected Path

Hurricane Teddy is located about 365 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and is moving to the north-northwest at 28 mph (44 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night.

HurricaneTeddy Computer Models

Hurricane Teddy 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Teddy will track north-northeastward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next 12 hours or so then to the north-northwest then to the north-northeast again toward Nova Scotia.

The ECMWF European model (orange triangle), UKMET (blue square), GFS American model (purple square), and HWRF model (pink circle) are all tightly clustered in this forecast.

Hurricane Teddy Category Strength

Hurricane Teddy 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Teddy is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h), with higher gusts.

Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of the cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 400 miles (645 km).

Hurricane Teddy Watches and Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the south coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Meat Cove to Tidnish, Nova Scotia; North of Digby to Fort Lawrence, Nova Scotia; Magdalen Islands, Quebec; Port aux Basques to Francois, Newfoundland; and Prince Edward Island.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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