NOAA: Hurricane Teddy Track, Spaghetti Models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Friday, September 18, 2020, due to the presence of a powerful Category 4 Hurricane Teddy (formerly Invest 95L and Tropical Depression Twenty).

Teddy the earliest 19th named storm of any Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Teddy Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Teddy 2020 Projected Path

Hurricane Teddy is located about 550 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend followed by a turn to the north by early next week.

On the official NHC forecast track, Teddy will make its closest approach to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

HurricaneTeddy Computer Models

Hurricane Teddy 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in strong agreement that Teddy will track northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean for the next day or so then curve to the north on days 2 or 3.

The ECMWF European model (orange triangle), UKMET (blue square), GFS American model (purple square), and HWRF model (pink circle) have all become tightly clustered in this forecast.

The new official NHC track (red circle) is close to the previous advisory track and lies in the middle of the track guidance.

Hurricane Teddy Category Strength

Hurricane Teddy 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Teddy is a major Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), with higher gusts.

Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center of the cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Currently, a total of 6 tropical cyclones may form within the next 5 days.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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