NOAA: Tropical Depression Wilfred Track Update, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Wilfred 2020 Projected Path

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory at 5 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Sunday, September 20, 2020, due to the presence of Tropical Depression Wilfred (formerly Invest 98L) that is tracking over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Wilfred is the last gender name left for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. All future storms in 2020 will have a Greek alphabet designation.

Tropical Depression Wilfred is the earliest 21st named storm of any Atlantic Hurricane Season by 22 days that was previously held by Hurricane Vince in 2005.

Wilfred is also the earliest “W” named storm on record beating Hurricane Wilma of 2005 by 27 days.

Tropical Depression Wilfred Projected Path

Tropical Depression Wilfred is located about 1445 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph (31 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next few days until dissipation.

Tropical Depression Wilfred Computer Models

Tropical Storm Wilfred 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Wilfred 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Tropical Depression Wilfred will track west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean then dissipate before reaching the Caribbean Sea.

The official NHC forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has been adjusted farther south at 36 hours and beyond, trending toward the latest consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Wilfred Category Strength

Tropical Depression Wilfred has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h), with higher gusts.

Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a couple of days.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurred on September 10 when tropical cyclone activity significantly increases, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical hurricane activity data.

Prevailing hurricane tracks in September
Prevailing hurricane tracks in September

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.