NOAA: Hurricane Delta Path, Spaghetti Models

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Advisory Update at 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, October 8, 2020, due to the presence of Hurricane Delta (formerly Invest 92L, Tropical Depression 26, and Tropical Storm Delta) that is forecast to make landfall on or near Louisiana.

Hurricane Delta Projected Path

NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Delta Projected Path Louisiana
NOAA National Hurricane Center Hurricane Delta Projected Path Louisiana

Hurricane Delta is located 400 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving to the northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h).

NHC forecasters say that this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected today.

A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night.

On the official NHC forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today and move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Hurricane Delta Computer Models

Hurricane Delta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Delta Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

The GFS American model (purple square), ECMWF European model (orange triangle), and official NHC track forecast (red circle) are in strong agreement that the tropical cyclone will move in a northwesterly over the Gulf of Mexico then curve north-northeastward towards Louisiana.

Hurricane Delta Category Strength

Hurricane Delta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Hurricane Delta NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Hurricane Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane again by tonight.

Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center of the tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

Hurricane Delta Watches And Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and LakeBorgne.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from east of High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of east of High Island to San Luis Pass, Texas; and east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from east of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.