NOAA: Invest 95L Track Off Florida, Spaghetti Models

NOAA National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook October 24, 2020

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 24, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 95L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone off the coast of Florida.

Invest 95L is a broad area of low pressure located just south of Grand Cayman Island (marked with a red “X”).

If Invest 95L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Zeta.

Invest 95L 2020 Projected Path

NHC forecasters say that shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in organization, and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for further development.

A tropical depression will likely form during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the northwest or north.

The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend and into early next week.

Invest 95L has a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and an 80% chance within the next 48 hours.

Invest 95L 2020 Computer Models

Invest 95L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Invest 95L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Computer models vary widely as to which track Invest 95L will take in the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

Although September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.